1460 days in custody. 1460 lie ahead — or less, or more? How probable is Khodorkovsky’s release on parole? Is it more likely that he will again be convicted? The press centre asks some well-known people to respond to today’s main question: What next?

Yevgeny Yasin, research director of the Higher School of Economics, president of the Liberal Mission foundation
I don’t believe parole is a possibility. Neither do I think that Khodorkovsky will be released as long as Putin, and those who imprisoned Khodorkovsky and started the whole affair, remain in power. The new charges are even less convincing, even less suitable for an open trial, than the previous accusations. Yet so far as I understand, they want to smear him with other misdeeds and keep him inside for a longer period. So far I have no good expectations.

Grigory Chkhartishvili (Boris Akunin), writer
Mikhail Khodorkovsky has only one chance, I think, of being released before the end of the present reign, which, as we all understand, will not come to a close in 2008. His path to freedom requires public penance, the heaping of ash on his head, and so on. After all that he has been through I could not blame him for taking that way out (especially since I enjoy the status of a comfortable bystander). I hope and believe, however, that Mikhail Khodorkovsky will go on fighting. Locked up in prison, he must feel much freer, it seems to me, than those who put him there.

Tamara Morshchakova, Constitutional Court judge (retired)
Things could develop in several ways. One variant, of course, is parole. Yet how could that be squared with the new charges? A case did come before the Constitutional Court, it is true, when a prisoner complained that, because he was transferred to the pre-trial detention centre after new charges were brought, he had been denied the opportunity to apply for parole. The Court ruled that anyone serving a sentence must have the opportunity to make such a personal application, no matter if he faced new charges and without waiting for the administration of the facility where he was imprisoned to take the initiative. Of course, the opportunity to make such an application must be granted to the individual. The realistic prospects [in Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s case] remain, in my view, most uncertain.

Boris Strugatsky, writer
Regrettably, I have no faith in the idea of parole. I don’t believe in anything good in the immediate future. When and if there is a new president, perhaps, there’ll be some easing up. But that’s the only chance. As to whether there’ll be a new trial, I’m not convinced. It’s not the trial which is important, after all, but the constantly dangling threat which should keep Khodorkovsky silent. Perhaps the trial will go ahead. But the charges are so ludicrous, in my understanding, that I simply do not know how the case will come to court. I wish Mikhail Khodorkovsky patience and determination. As if he hadn’t endured enough already …

Vitaly Ginzburg, Russian Academy of Sciences, Nobel laureate
I think they won’t release him. Of course not: What prevents them doing so now? What kind of hint do they need?! They’ve given him eight years already, that’s enough. Do they want to keep Mikhail Khodorkovsky shut up for the rest of his life? If there’s a petition for his release I shall most certainly sign. It’s an outrageous business.

Vasily Aksyonov, writer
I don’t believe they will parole Mikhail Khodorkovsky as a formality. I don’t think that’s possible. To be honest, I don’t know what to do in this situation. We can write yet another letter and collect signatures … That also will not influence them. A very simple letter is needed. One that does not repeat previous appeals, that doesn’t say he’s innocent, but simply, without emotion, says that four years have passed and we, the signatories, request that the government help implement the law. At some point the number of petitions and appeals from all sides, from every corner of the world, and from various VIPs, may have an effect. Then quantity will be transformed into quality.

Lev Gudkov, director of the Levada Centre
The regime is vengeful and does not know how to back down. In this instance it is more important for the authorities to insist on their right to convict and punish an individual, irrespective of the legal motivation or any judicial considerations. It is the purely arbitrary exercise of power. I would not expect any movement. On the contrary, for the authorities this prisoner is important as a prisoner.

Sergei Yursky, actor
The situation is now against Khodorkovsky, it seems to me. To my great regret I see no possibility that he might be paroled. Why else would they have presented a man who has already spent four years in prison new charges to study? Perhaps one can place some hopes on next year when certain changes will occur. The defence attorneys must continue to work and demonstrate the injustice of all that is going on. We must not give up. But will they pay any attention? I think it’s unrealistic. As it says in one play, We must hope, pray and be patient.

Dmitry Zimin, founder and honorary president of Vympelcom, president of the Dynasty foundation
As long as the events surrounding Mikhail Khodorkovsky continue I doubt that our country faces a happy future. It’s an open wound. My heart bleeds.